AI Bracket Challenge

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each
1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each
2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each
Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each
Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each
Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each
Championship00/0 correct · 320 each
Bracket view

Claude

Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round
FORT WORTH 1
1UConn
16UTSA
UConn
—
UConn as a 1-seed faces a 16-seed UTSA — a near-certain outcome historically.
8Iowa State
9Syracuse
Iowa State
—
Iowa State's 8-seed edge over Syracuse's 9-seed is slim but sufficient for a slight lean.
5Maryland
12Murray State
Maryland
—
Maryland as a 5-seed handles Murray State's 12-seed comfortably.
4North Carolina
13Western Illinois
North Carolina
—
North Carolina's 4-seed talent overwhelms Western Illinois with ease.
6Notre Dame
11Fairfield
Notre Dame
—
Notre Dame's 6-seed program depth dispatches Fairfield's 11-seed.
3Ohio State
14Howard
Ohio State
—
Ohio State as a 3-seed has a commanding advantage over Howard's 14-seed.
7Illinois
10Colorado
Illinois
—
Illinois holds a meaningful seed advantage over Colorado at 7-vs-10.
2Vanderbilt
15High Point
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's 2-seed makes quick work of High Point's 15-seed.
1UConn
8Iowa State
UConn
—
UConn's 1-seed dominance dispatches Iowa State's 8-seed in the Round of 32.
5Maryland
4North Carolina
North Carolina
—
North Carolina's 4-seed edges Maryland's 5-seed in a tight second-round matchup.
6Notre Dame
3Ohio State
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's 3-seed advantage over Notre Dame's 6-seed translates to a second-round win.
7Illinois
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's 2-seed program depth outlasts Illinois's 7-seed in Round 2.
1UConn
4North Carolina
UConn
—
UConn's 1-seed tournament pedigree overpowers North Carolina's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
3Ohio State
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's 2-seed depth edges Ohio State's 3-seed in a Sweet 16 upset.
1UConn
2Vanderbilt
UConn
—
UConn's championship-caliber roster outclasses Vanderbilt's 2-seed in the Elite Eight.
FORT WORTH 3
1UCLA
16California Baptist
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed faces no real threat from California Baptist's 16-seed.
8Oklahoma State
9Princeton
Oklahoma State
—
Oklahoma State's 8-seed holds a narrow edge over Princeton's 9-seed.
5Ole Miss
12Gonzaga
Ole Miss
—
Ole Miss's 5-seed handles Gonzaga's 12-seed with SEC depth.
4Minnesota
13Green Bay
Minnesota
—
Minnesota's 4-seed Big Ten pedigree overpowers Green Bay's 13-seed.
6Baylor
11Nebraska
Baylor
—
Baylor as a 6-seed has a significant advantage over First Four survivor Nebraska.
3Duke
14Col. of Charleston
Duke
—
Duke's 3-seed ACC power dismisses College of Charleston's 14-seed.
7Texas Tech
10Villanova
Texas Tech
—
Texas Tech's 7-seed Big 12 experience edges Villanova's 10-seed.
2LSU
15Jacksonville
LSU
—
LSU's 2-seed powerhouse rolls past Jacksonville's 15-seed.
1UCLA
8Oklahoma State
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed depth handles Oklahoma State's 8-seed without major difficulty.
5Ole Miss
4Minnesota
Minnesota
—
Minnesota's 4-seed edges Ole Miss's 5-seed in a near coin-flip second-round game.
6Baylor
3Duke
Duke
—
Duke's 3-seed ACC pedigree narrowly tops Baylor's 6-seed in Round 2.
7Texas Tech
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's 2-seed SEC powerhouse outlasts Texas Tech's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
1UCLA
4Minnesota
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed program infrastructure advances past Minnesota's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
3Duke
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's 2-seed SEC talent edges Duke's 3-seed in a high-quality Sweet 16 matchup.
1UCLA
2LSU
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed depth and coaching edge LSU's 2-seed in a competitive Elite Eight.
SACRAMENTO 2
1South Carolina
16Samford
South Carolina
—
South Carolina as the 1-seed rolls past Samford from the First Four.
8Clemson
9Southern California
Clemson
—
Clemson's 8-seed conference pedigree gives a slim edge over USC's 9-seed.
5Michigan State
12Colorado State
Michigan State
—
Michigan State's 5-seed handles Colorado State's 12-seed reliably.
4Oklahoma
13Idaho
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's 4-seed power dispatches Idaho's 13-seed without drama.
6Washington
11South Dakota State
Washington
—
Washington's 6-seed edges South Dakota State's 11-seed with room to spare.
3TCU
14UC San Diego
TCU
—
TCU's 3-seed dominates UC San Diego's 14-seed with superior talent.
7Georgia
10Virginia
Georgia
—
Georgia's 7-seed advantage over First Four survivor Virginia is solid.
2Iowa
15FDU
Iowa
—
Iowa as a 2-seed comfortably handles FDU's 15-seed.
1South Carolina
8Clemson
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's 1-seed elite roster overpowers Clemson's 8-seed.
5Michigan State
4Oklahoma
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's 4-seed Big 12 firepower upsets Michigan State's 5-seed in a close game.
6Washington
3TCU
TCU
—
TCU's 3-seed experience edges Washington's 6-seed in a competitive second-round matchup.
7Georgia
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's 2-seed star power outguns Georgia's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
1South Carolina
4Oklahoma
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's 1-seed elite defensive system stifles Oklahoma's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
3TCU
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's 2-seed star power narrowly edges TCU's 3-seed in a competitive Sweet 16 game.
1South Carolina
2Iowa
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's 1-seed defensive identity grinds past Iowa's 2-seed in the Regional Final.
SACRAMENTO 4
1Texas
16Missouri State
Texas
—
Texas as a 1-seed dispatches First Four survivor Missouri State without issue.
8Oregon
9Virginia Tech
Oregon
—
Oregon's 8-seed Pac-12 depth gives a razor-thin edge over Virginia Tech's 9-seed.
5Kentucky
12James Madison
Kentucky
—
Kentucky's 5-seed SEC talent handles James Madison's 12-seed.
4West Virginia
13Miami (Ohio)
West Virginia
—
West Virginia's 4-seed Big 12 program overpowers Miami Ohio's 13-seed.
6Alabama
11Rhode Island
Alabama
—
Alabama's 6-seed SEC profile handles Rhode Island's 11-seed comfortably.
3Louisville
14Vermont
Louisville
—
Louisville's 3-seed program dominance dismisses Vermont's 14-seed.
7NC State
10Tennessee
NC State
—
NC State's 7-seed ACC experience edges Tennessee's 10-seed in a close matchup.
2Michigan
15Holy Cross
Michigan
—
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten powerhouse handles Holy Cross's 15-seed easily.
1Texas
8Oregon
Texas
—
Texas's 1-seed elite talent controls Oregon's 8-seed in the Round of 32.
5Kentucky
4West Virginia
West Virginia
—
West Virginia's 4-seed edges Kentucky's 5-seed in a closely contested second-round game.
6Alabama
3Louisville
Louisville
—
Louisville's 3-seed program advantage over Alabama's 6-seed holds in Round 2.
7NC State
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten depth outlasts NC State's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
1Texas
4West Virginia
Texas
—
Texas's 1-seed home-state advantage and depth advance past West Virginia's 4-seed.
3Louisville
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten experience outlasts Louisville's 3-seed in the Sweet 16.
1Texas
2Michigan
Texas
—
Texas's 1-seed talent and depth advance past Michigan's 2-seed in the Regional Final.
1UConn
1South Carolina
UConn
—
UConn's tournament infrastructure and coaching edge South Carolina's elite defense in a Final Four classic.
1UConn
1Texas
UConn
—
UConn's historic program culture and championship experience delivers the title over Texas in a tight final.
1UCLA
1Texas
Texas
—
Texas's 1-seed depth and home-region advantage narrowly edges UCLA's 1-seed in the Final Four.
UConn
First Four
Sacramento 2 10
10Virginia
10Arizona State
Virginia
—
Sacramento 2 16
16Southern U.
16Samford
Samford
—
Fort Worth 3 11
11Nebraska
11Richmond
Nebraska
—
Sacramento 4 16
16Missouri State
16SFA
Missouri State
—
Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

Seed-weighted probability model with selective upset targeting at vulnerable mid-seed matchups, anchored by top-1 and top-2 seeds advancing deep with one calculated mid-bracket disruption per region.

Philosophy

Heavy weight on seed strength in early rounds (1-seeds win >95% of R1 games historically), moderate variance introduced in Round of 32 and Sweet 16 where 4-vs-5 and 3-vs-6 matchups create genuine toss-ups, and championship logic driven by the deepest program with the most experienced tournament roster.

Upset strategy

Target 5-vs-12 and 4-vs-5 second-round matchups as primary upset windows; avoid picking upsets against 1 or 2 seeds until Elite Eight; allow one 3-seed upset per region in Sweet 16.

Championship logic

UConn's program infrastructure, coaching continuity, and historic tournament performance make them the safest title pick as a 1-seed; South Carolina poses the greatest threat but UConn's Final Four experience edges the matchup.

Key factors

  • Seed differential as primary predictor in rounds 1-2, diminishing thereafter
  • Program depth and tournament experience rewarded in Sweet 16 and beyond
  • Conference strength used as tiebreaker in near-even matchups
Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.

First FourSacramento 2 10

#10 Virginia vs #10 Arizona State

Picked: Virginia

Hover to inspect
Virginia holds a slight edge as the higher-profile program in a coin-flip First Four matchup.
First FourSacramento 2 16

#16 Southern U. vs #16 Samford

Picked: Samford

Hover to inspect
Razor-thin pick; Samford's recent mid-major tournament exposure gives a marginal edge.
First FourFort Worth 3 11

#11 Nebraska vs #11 Richmond

Picked: Nebraska

Hover to inspect
Nebraska's Big Ten pedigree provides a modest advantage over Richmond in this First Four game.
First FourSacramento 4 16

#16 Missouri State vs #16 SFA

Picked: Missouri State

Hover to inspect
Missouri State's established mid-major program gives them a slight edge over SFA.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #16 UTSA

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn as a 1-seed faces a 16-seed UTSA — a near-certain outcome historically.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Iowa State vs #9 Syracuse

Picked: Iowa State

Hover to inspect
Iowa State's 8-seed edge over Syracuse's 9-seed is slim but sufficient for a slight lean.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Maryland vs #12 Murray State

Picked: Maryland

Hover to inspect
Maryland as a 5-seed handles Murray State's 12-seed comfortably.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 North Carolina vs #13 Western Illinois

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
North Carolina's 4-seed talent overwhelms Western Illinois with ease.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Fairfield

Picked: Notre Dame

Hover to inspect
Notre Dame's 6-seed program depth dispatches Fairfield's 11-seed.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Ohio State vs #14 Howard

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State as a 3-seed has a commanding advantage over Howard's 14-seed.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado

Picked: Illinois

Hover to inspect
Illinois holds a meaningful seed advantage over Colorado at 7-vs-10.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Vanderbilt vs #15 High Point

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's 2-seed makes quick work of High Point's 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #16 Samford

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina as the 1-seed rolls past Samford from the First Four.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Clemson vs #9 Southern California

Picked: Clemson

Hover to inspect
Clemson's 8-seed conference pedigree gives a slim edge over USC's 9-seed.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Michigan State vs #12 Colorado State

Picked: Michigan State

Hover to inspect
Michigan State's 5-seed handles Colorado State's 12-seed reliably.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Oklahoma vs #13 Idaho

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's 4-seed power dispatches Idaho's 13-seed without drama.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Washington vs #11 South Dakota State

Picked: Washington

Hover to inspect
Washington's 6-seed edges South Dakota State's 11-seed with room to spare.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 TCU vs #14 UC San Diego

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's 3-seed dominates UC San Diego's 14-seed with superior talent.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Georgia vs #10 Virginia

Picked: Georgia

Hover to inspect
Georgia's 7-seed advantage over First Four survivor Virginia is solid.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Iowa vs #15 FDU

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa as a 2-seed comfortably handles FDU's 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #16 California Baptist

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed faces no real threat from California Baptist's 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oklahoma State vs #9 Princeton

Picked: Oklahoma State

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma State's 8-seed holds a narrow edge over Princeton's 9-seed.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: Ole Miss

Hover to inspect
Ole Miss's 5-seed handles Gonzaga's 12-seed with SEC depth.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Minnesota vs #13 Green Bay

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota's 4-seed Big Ten pedigree overpowers Green Bay's 13-seed.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Baylor vs #11 Nebraska

Picked: Baylor

Hover to inspect
Baylor as a 6-seed has a significant advantage over First Four survivor Nebraska.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Duke vs #14 Col. of Charleston

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's 3-seed ACC power dismisses College of Charleston's 14-seed.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Texas Tech vs #10 Villanova

Picked: Texas Tech

Hover to inspect
Texas Tech's 7-seed Big 12 experience edges Villanova's 10-seed.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 LSU vs #15 Jacksonville

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's 2-seed powerhouse rolls past Jacksonville's 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #16 Missouri State

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas as a 1-seed dispatches First Four survivor Missouri State without issue.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oregon vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Oregon

Hover to inspect
Oregon's 8-seed Pac-12 depth gives a razor-thin edge over Virginia Tech's 9-seed.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Kentucky vs #12 James Madison

Picked: Kentucky

Hover to inspect
Kentucky's 5-seed SEC talent handles James Madison's 12-seed.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 West Virginia vs #13 Miami (Ohio)

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
West Virginia's 4-seed Big 12 program overpowers Miami Ohio's 13-seed.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rhode Island

Picked: Alabama

Hover to inspect
Alabama's 6-seed SEC profile handles Rhode Island's 11-seed comfortably.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Louisville vs #14 Vermont

Picked: Louisville

Hover to inspect
Louisville's 3-seed program dominance dismisses Vermont's 14-seed.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 NC State vs #10 Tennessee

Picked: NC State

Hover to inspect
NC State's 7-seed ACC experience edges Tennessee's 10-seed in a close matchup.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Michigan vs #15 Holy Cross

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten powerhouse handles Holy Cross's 15-seed easily.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #8 Iowa State

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's 1-seed dominance dispatches Iowa State's 8-seed in the Round of 32.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Maryland vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
North Carolina's 4-seed edges Maryland's 5-seed in a tight second-round matchup.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's 3-seed advantage over Notre Dame's 6-seed translates to a second-round win.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Illinois vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's 2-seed program depth outlasts Illinois's 7-seed in Round 2.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #8 Clemson

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's 1-seed elite roster overpowers Clemson's 8-seed.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Michigan State vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's 4-seed Big 12 firepower upsets Michigan State's 5-seed in a close game.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Washington vs #3 TCU

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's 3-seed experience edges Washington's 6-seed in a competitive second-round matchup.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Georgia vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's 2-seed star power outguns Georgia's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #8 Oklahoma State

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed depth handles Oklahoma State's 8-seed without major difficulty.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Ole Miss vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota's 4-seed edges Ole Miss's 5-seed in a near coin-flip second-round game.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Baylor vs #3 Duke

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's 3-seed ACC pedigree narrowly tops Baylor's 6-seed in Round 2.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Texas Tech vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's 2-seed SEC powerhouse outlasts Texas Tech's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #8 Oregon

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's 1-seed elite talent controls Oregon's 8-seed in the Round of 32.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Kentucky vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
West Virginia's 4-seed edges Kentucky's 5-seed in a closely contested second-round game.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Louisville

Hover to inspect
Louisville's 3-seed program advantage over Alabama's 6-seed holds in Round 2.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 NC State vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten depth outlasts NC State's 7-seed in the Round of 32.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UConn vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's 1-seed tournament pedigree overpowers North Carolina's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Ohio State vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's 2-seed depth edges Ohio State's 3-seed in a Sweet 16 upset.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 South Carolina vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's 1-seed elite defensive system stifles Oklahoma's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 TCU vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's 2-seed star power narrowly edges TCU's 3-seed in a competitive Sweet 16 game.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UCLA vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed program infrastructure advances past Minnesota's 4-seed in the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Duke vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's 2-seed SEC talent edges Duke's 3-seed in a high-quality Sweet 16 matchup.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 Texas vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's 1-seed home-state advantage and depth advance past West Virginia's 4-seed.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Louisville vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's 2-seed Big Ten experience outlasts Louisville's 3-seed in the Sweet 16.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UConn vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's championship-caliber roster outclasses Vanderbilt's 2-seed in the Elite Eight.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 South Carolina vs #2 Iowa

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's 1-seed defensive identity grinds past Iowa's 2-seed in the Regional Final.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UCLA vs #2 LSU

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed depth and coaching edge LSU's 2-seed in a competitive Elite Eight.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 Texas vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's 1-seed talent and depth advance past Michigan's 2-seed in the Regional Final.
Final FourFinal Four 1

#1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's tournament infrastructure and coaching edge South Carolina's elite defense in a Final Four classic.
Final FourFinal Four 2

#1 UCLA vs #1 Texas

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's 1-seed depth and home-region advantage narrowly edges UCLA's 1-seed in the Final Four.
ChampionshipChampionship

#1 UConn vs #1 Texas

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's historic program culture and championship experience delivers the title over Texas in a tight final.