AI Bracket Challenge

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each
1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each
2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each
Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each
Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each
Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each
Championship00/0 correct · 320 each
Bracket view

Codex

Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round
FORT WORTH 1
1UConn
16UTSA
UConn
—
UConn is overwhelmingly stronger than a 16-seed opponent.
8Iowa State
9Syracuse
Iowa State
—
Iowa State gets a slight edge in the classic 8-9 matchup.
5Maryland
12Murray State
Maryland
—
Maryland has the seed and roster edge over Murray State.
4North Carolina
13Western Illinois
North Carolina
—
North Carolina should control this game from the outset.
6Notre Dame
11Fairfield
Notre Dame
—
Notre Dame has too much top-end quality for Fairfield.
3Ohio State
14Howard
Ohio State
—
Ohio State has a clear talent advantage over Howard.
7Illinois
10Colorado
Illinois
—
Illinois is the steadier choice in the 7-10 line.
2Vanderbilt
15High Point
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt should advance comfortably as a No. 2 seed.
1UConn
8Iowa State
UConn
—
UConn should separate from Iowa State with superior ceiling talent.
5Maryland
4North Carolina
North Carolina
—
North Carolina gets the edge in a competitive 4-5 game.
6Notre Dame
3Ohio State
Ohio State
—
Ohio State has a slight edge over Notre Dame in a strong second-round matchup.
7Illinois
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt is favored to end Illinois' run.
1UConn
4North Carolina
UConn
—
UConn is the better bet to win a high-level Sweet 16 game.
3Ohio State
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt gets a narrow nod over Ohio State on path strength.
1UConn
2Vanderbilt
UConn
—
UConn's championship equity makes it the regional favorite.
FORT WORTH 3
1UCLA
16California Baptist
UCLA
—
UCLA has an overwhelming edge against a 16-seed.
8Oklahoma State
9Princeton
Princeton
—
Princeton is the slight upset pick in a tight 8-9 game.
5Ole Miss
12Gonzaga
Ole Miss
—
Ole Miss has the more reliable top-line profile.
4Minnesota
13Green Bay
Minnesota
—
Minnesota should impose its size and seed advantage.
6Baylor
11Nebraska
Baylor
—
Baylor is favored, but the 6-11 line stays somewhat volatile.
3Duke
14Col. of Charleston
Duke
—
Duke should move on without major stress.
7Texas Tech
10Villanova
Villanova
—
Villanova is a narrow upset pick in a close 7-10 matchup.
2LSU
15Jacksonville
LSU
—
LSU is a decisive favorite over Jacksonville.
1UCLA
9Princeton
UCLA
—
UCLA should have too much depth for Princeton.
5Ole Miss
4Minnesota
Ole Miss
—
Ole Miss is a slight favorite over Minnesota in the second round.
6Baylor
3Duke
Duke
—
Duke gets a narrow edge over Baylor in a tough 3-6 meeting.
10Villanova
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU has the stronger upside profile than Villanova.
1UCLA
5Ole Miss
UCLA
—
UCLA is the best bet to emerge from the top half of the region.
3Duke
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's ceiling makes it the pick over Duke.
1UCLA
2LSU
UCLA
—
UCLA gets the lean in a very high-end regional final.
SACRAMENTO 2
1South Carolina
16Samford
South Carolina
—
South Carolina is a dominant favorite against any 16-seed.
8Clemson
9Southern California
Southern California
—
USC is a mild upset pick in a balanced 8-9 pairing.
5Michigan State
12Colorado State
Michigan State
—
Michigan State has the stronger profile over Colorado State.
4Oklahoma
13Idaho
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma should have too much scoring punch for Idaho.
6Washington
11South Dakota State
South Dakota State
—
South Dakota State is a live 11-seed with upset viability.
3TCU
14UC San Diego
TCU
—
TCU holds a substantial athletic and seed advantage.
7Georgia
10Virginia
Georgia
—
Georgia is favored to handle the First Four winner.
2Iowa
15FDU
Iowa
—
Iowa is a heavy favorite over FDU.
1South Carolina
9Southern California
South Carolina
—
South Carolina should handle USC with its usual defensive control.
5Michigan State
4Oklahoma
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma is the slight favorite over Michigan State in a quality matchup.
11South Dakota State
3TCU
TCU
—
TCU has enough top-end punch to stop the 11-seed run.
7Georgia
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa is favored to move past Georgia's defense.
1South Carolina
4Oklahoma
South Carolina
—
South Carolina is the more complete team against Oklahoma.
3TCU
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa gets the edge in a potentially high-scoring Sweet 16 game.
1South Carolina
2Iowa
South Carolina
—
South Carolina is the safer regional winner over Iowa.
SACRAMENTO 4
1Texas
16Missouri State
Texas
—
Texas should dominate the First Four winner.
8Oregon
9Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
—
Virginia Tech is a slight upset choice in the 8-9 game.
5Kentucky
12James Madison
Kentucky
—
Kentucky has the cleaner path and seed edge over James Madison.
4West Virginia
13Miami (Ohio)
West Virginia
—
West Virginia should control the matchup against Miami (Ohio).
6Alabama
11Rhode Island
Alabama
—
Alabama is the better baseline play over Rhode Island.
3Louisville
14Vermont
Louisville
—
Louisville has a strong edge against Vermont.
7NC State
10Tennessee
Tennessee
—
Tennessee is a narrow upset pick in a volatile 7-10 slot.
2Michigan
15Holy Cross
Michigan
—
Michigan should advance easily against Holy Cross.
1Texas
9Virginia Tech
Texas
—
Texas should advance comfortably past Virginia Tech.
5Kentucky
4West Virginia
West Virginia
—
West Virginia is a slight choice over Kentucky in a physical matchup.
6Alabama
3Louisville
Louisville
—
Louisville gets the edge over Alabama on overall balance.
10Tennessee
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan is favored to stop Tennessee after the upset.
1Texas
4West Virginia
Texas
—
Texas is the stronger regional anchor over West Virginia.
3Louisville
2Michigan
Louisville
—
Louisville is a narrow pick in a balanced Sweet 16 matchup.
1Texas
3Louisville
Texas
—
Texas has the most reliable path to win this region.
1UConn
1South Carolina
South Carolina
—
South Carolina gets the edge over UConn in a title-caliber semifinal.
1South Carolina
1Texas
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's two-way consistency makes it the national champion pick.
1UCLA
1Texas
Texas
—
Texas is a slight pick over UCLA in a defensive battle.
South Carolina
First Four
Sacramento 2 10
10Virginia
10Arizona State
Virginia
—
Sacramento 2 16
16Southern U.
16Samford
Samford
—
Fort Worth 3 11
11Nebraska
11Richmond
Nebraska
—
Sacramento 4 16
16Missouri State
16SFA
Missouri State
—
Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

This bracket leans on elite No. 1 seeds, limits early chaos, and concentrates upset equity in the 8/9, 7/10, 6/11, and 5/12 bands.

Philosophy

The model respects top-seed baseline strength, allows selective variance in coin-flip seed lines, and saves the boldest upside plays for regions with plausible path leverage.

Upset strategy

Upsets are targeted where seed gaps are small or where the underdog can realistically survive the next round, rather than spraying long shots across the whole bracket.

Championship logic

South Carolina wins because its projected path combines top-end talent, defensive reliability, and fewer structural vulnerabilities over six games.

Key factors

  • Seed-driven baseline win probability
  • Path difficulty across each region
  • Selective upset value in clustered matchups
Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.

First FourSacramento 2 10

#10 Virginia vs #10 Arizona State

Picked: Virginia

Hover to inspect
Virginia gets the nod in a near-toss-up First Four game.
First FourSacramento 2 16

#16 Southern U. vs #16 Samford

Picked: Samford

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Samford is the slight pick in a low-separation play-in matchup.
First FourFort Worth 3 11

#11 Nebraska vs #11 Richmond

Picked: Nebraska

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Nebraska has a narrow edge in the 11-seed play-in.
First FourSacramento 4 16

#16 Missouri State vs #16 SFA

Picked: Missouri State

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Missouri State advances from the most volatile First Four game.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #16 UTSA

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn is overwhelmingly stronger than a 16-seed opponent.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Iowa State vs #9 Syracuse

Picked: Iowa State

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Iowa State gets a slight edge in the classic 8-9 matchup.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Maryland vs #12 Murray State

Picked: Maryland

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Maryland has the seed and roster edge over Murray State.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 North Carolina vs #13 Western Illinois

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
North Carolina should control this game from the outset.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Fairfield

Picked: Notre Dame

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Notre Dame has too much top-end quality for Fairfield.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Ohio State vs #14 Howard

Picked: Ohio State

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Ohio State has a clear talent advantage over Howard.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado

Picked: Illinois

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Illinois is the steadier choice in the 7-10 line.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Vanderbilt vs #15 High Point

Picked: Vanderbilt

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Vanderbilt should advance comfortably as a No. 2 seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #16 Samford

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina is a dominant favorite against any 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Clemson vs #9 Southern California

Picked: Southern California

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USC is a mild upset pick in a balanced 8-9 pairing.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Michigan State vs #12 Colorado State

Picked: Michigan State

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Michigan State has the stronger profile over Colorado State.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Oklahoma vs #13 Idaho

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma should have too much scoring punch for Idaho.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Washington vs #11 South Dakota State

Picked: South Dakota State

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South Dakota State is a live 11-seed with upset viability.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 TCU vs #14 UC San Diego

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU holds a substantial athletic and seed advantage.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Georgia vs #10 Virginia

Picked: Georgia

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Georgia is favored to handle the First Four winner.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Iowa vs #15 FDU

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa is a heavy favorite over FDU.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #16 California Baptist

Picked: UCLA

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UCLA has an overwhelming edge against a 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oklahoma State vs #9 Princeton

Picked: Princeton

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Princeton is the slight upset pick in a tight 8-9 game.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: Ole Miss

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Ole Miss has the more reliable top-line profile.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Minnesota vs #13 Green Bay

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota should impose its size and seed advantage.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Baylor vs #11 Nebraska

Picked: Baylor

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Baylor is favored, but the 6-11 line stays somewhat volatile.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Duke vs #14 Col. of Charleston

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke should move on without major stress.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Texas Tech vs #10 Villanova

Picked: Villanova

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Villanova is a narrow upset pick in a close 7-10 matchup.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 LSU vs #15 Jacksonville

Picked: LSU

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LSU is a decisive favorite over Jacksonville.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #16 Missouri State

Picked: Texas

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Texas should dominate the First Four winner.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oregon vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Virginia Tech

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Virginia Tech is a slight upset choice in the 8-9 game.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Kentucky vs #12 James Madison

Picked: Kentucky

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Kentucky has the cleaner path and seed edge over James Madison.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 West Virginia vs #13 Miami (Ohio)

Picked: West Virginia

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West Virginia should control the matchup against Miami (Ohio).
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rhode Island

Picked: Alabama

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Alabama is the better baseline play over Rhode Island.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Louisville vs #14 Vermont

Picked: Louisville

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Louisville has a strong edge against Vermont.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 NC State vs #10 Tennessee

Picked: Tennessee

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Tennessee is a narrow upset pick in a volatile 7-10 slot.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Michigan vs #15 Holy Cross

Picked: Michigan

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Michigan should advance easily against Holy Cross.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #8 Iowa State

Picked: UConn

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UConn should separate from Iowa State with superior ceiling talent.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Maryland vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: North Carolina

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North Carolina gets the edge in a competitive 4-5 game.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: Ohio State

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Ohio State has a slight edge over Notre Dame in a strong second-round matchup.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Illinois vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

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Vanderbilt is favored to end Illinois' run.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #9 Southern California

Picked: South Carolina

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South Carolina should handle USC with its usual defensive control.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Michigan State vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: Oklahoma

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Oklahoma is the slight favorite over Michigan State in a quality matchup.
2nd RoundGame 3

#11 South Dakota State vs #3 TCU

Picked: TCU

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TCU has enough top-end punch to stop the 11-seed run.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Georgia vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

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Iowa is favored to move past Georgia's defense.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #9 Princeton

Picked: UCLA

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UCLA should have too much depth for Princeton.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Ole Miss vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: Ole Miss

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Ole Miss is a slight favorite over Minnesota in the second round.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Baylor vs #3 Duke

Picked: Duke

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Duke gets a narrow edge over Baylor in a tough 3-6 meeting.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Villanova vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

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LSU has the stronger upside profile than Villanova.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Texas

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Texas should advance comfortably past Virginia Tech.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Kentucky vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: West Virginia

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West Virginia is a slight choice over Kentucky in a physical matchup.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Louisville

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Louisville gets the edge over Alabama on overall balance.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Tennessee vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

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Michigan is favored to stop Tennessee after the upset.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UConn vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: UConn

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UConn is the better bet to win a high-level Sweet 16 game.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Ohio State vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

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Vanderbilt gets a narrow nod over Ohio State on path strength.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 South Carolina vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: South Carolina

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South Carolina is the more complete team against Oklahoma.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 TCU vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

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Iowa gets the edge in a potentially high-scoring Sweet 16 game.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UCLA vs #5 Ole Miss

Picked: UCLA

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UCLA is the best bet to emerge from the top half of the region.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Duke vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

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LSU's ceiling makes it the pick over Duke.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 Texas vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: Texas

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Texas is the stronger regional anchor over West Virginia.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Louisville vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Louisville

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Louisville is a narrow pick in a balanced Sweet 16 matchup.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UConn vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: UConn

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UConn's championship equity makes it the regional favorite.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 South Carolina vs #2 Iowa

Picked: South Carolina

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South Carolina is the safer regional winner over Iowa.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UCLA vs #2 LSU

Picked: UCLA

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UCLA gets the lean in a very high-end regional final.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 Texas vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Texas

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Texas has the most reliable path to win this region.
Final FourFinal Four 1

#1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina

Picked: South Carolina

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South Carolina gets the edge over UConn in a title-caliber semifinal.
Final FourFinal Four 2

#1 UCLA vs #1 Texas

Picked: Texas

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Texas is a slight pick over UCLA in a defensive battle.
ChampionshipChampionship

#1 South Carolina vs #1 Texas

Picked: South Carolina

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South Carolina's two-way consistency makes it the national champion pick.