AI Bracket Challenge

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each
1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each
2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each
Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each
Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each
Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each
Championship00/0 correct · 320 each
Bracket view

kimi-k2-thinking

Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round
FORT WORTH 1
1UConn
16UTSA
UConn
—
Top seed dominance over 16-seed.
8Iowa State
9Syracuse
Iowa State
—
ISU program strength in 8-9 matchup.
5Maryland
12Murray State
Maryland
—
Big Ten team defeats 12-seed mid-major.
4North Carolina
13Western Illinois
North Carolina
—
Historical program beats 13-seed.
6Notre Dame
11Fairfield
Notre Dame
—
Strong tournament program against 11-seed.
3Ohio State
14Howard
Ohio State
—
3-seed program dominance over 14-seed.
7Illinois
10Colorado
Illinois
—
7-seed edge over 10-seed in 7-10 matchup.
2Vanderbilt
15High Point
Vanderbilt
—
2-seed defeats 15-seed.
1UConn
8Iowa State
UConn
—
1-seed rolling advances over 8/9 winner.
5Maryland
4North Carolina
North Carolina
—
4-seed upsets 5-seed in classic bracket pattern.
6Notre Dame
3Ohio State
Notre Dame
—
6-seed defeats 3-seed in upset.
7Illinois
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
2-seed advances over 7-seed.
1UConn
4North Carolina
UConn
—
Elite 1-seed defeats test from 4-seed UNC.
6Notre Dame
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
2-seed handles upset-minded 6-seed Notre Dame.
1UConn
2Vanderbilt
UConn
—
Top seed powers past 2-seed Vanderbilt.
FORT WORTH 3
1UCLA
16California Baptist
UCLA
—
Elite 1-seed handles 16-seed comfortably.
8Oklahoma State
9Princeton
Oklahoma State
—
8-seed beats 9-seed in power conference matchup.
5Ole Miss
12Gonzaga
Ole Miss
—
12-seed upset over 5-seed in balanced mid-major matchup.
4Minnesota
13Green Bay
Minnesota
—
4-seed defeats 13-seed from mid-major conference.
6Baylor
11Nebraska
Nebraska
—
11-seed First Four upsets 6-seed.
3Duke
14Col. of Charleston
Duke
—
3-seed defeats 14-seed mid-major program.
7Texas Tech
10Villanova
Villanova
—
10-seed edges 7-seed in upset pattern.
2LSU
15Jacksonville
LSU
—
Elite 2-seed defeats 15-seed.
1UCLA
8Oklahoma State
UCLA
—
1-seed handles 8/9 winner with ease.
5Ole Miss
4Minnesota
Minnesota
—
4-seed advances over upset-minded 12-seed.
11Nebraska
3Duke
Nebraska
—
11-seed Cinderella run continues past 3-seed.
10Villanova
2LSU
LSU
—
2-seed advances over 10-seed.
1UCLA
4Minnesota
UCLA
—
Elite 1-seed defeats 4-seed Minnesota routinely.
11Nebraska
2LSU
LSU
—
Strong 2-seed ends 11-seed Cinderella run.
1UCLA
2LSU
UCLA
—
Regional strength gives 1-seed UCLA title in regional.
SACRAMENTO 2
1South Carolina
16Samford
South Carolina
—
Top seed dominant in 1 vs 16 game.
8Clemson
9Southern California
Clemson
—
8-9 upset pick based on conference strength.
5Michigan State
12Colorado State
Michigan State
—
5-seed defeats 12-seed from mid-major.
4Oklahoma
13Idaho
Oklahoma
—
4-seed defeats 13-seed mid-major.
6Washington
11South Dakota State
Washington
—
6-seed tops 11-seed in close matchup.
3TCU
14UC San Diego
TCU
—
3-seed handles 14-seed tournament newcomer.
7Georgia
10Virginia
Virginia
—
10-seed First Four winner upsets 7-seed.
2Iowa
15FDU
Iowa
—
Top-tier 2-seed dominates 15-seed.
1South Carolina
8Clemson
South Carolina
—
1-seed dominates 8/9 survivor.
5Michigan State
4Oklahoma
Michigan State
—
5-seed edges 4-seed in power conference battle.
6Washington
3TCU
TCU
—
3-seed advances over 6-seed.
10Virginia
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Elite 2-seed dominates regional path.
1South Carolina
5Michigan State
South Carolina
—
1-seem dominance over 5-seed MSU.
3TCU
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Elite 2-seed eliminates 3-seed TCU.
1South Carolina
2Iowa
South Carolina
—
1-seed slight edge over elite 2-seed Iowa.
SACRAMENTO 4
1Texas
16Missouri State
Texas
—
National contender 1-seed dominates.
8Oregon
9Virginia Tech
Oregon
—
9-seed edges 8-seed in toss-up matchup.
5Kentucky
12James Madison
Kentucky
—
5-seed defeats 12-seed mid-major.
4West Virginia
13Miami (Ohio)
West Virginia
—
4-seed handles 13-seed from mid-major.
6Alabama
11Rhode Island
Alabama
—
6-seed defeats 11-seed in SEC matchup.
3Louisville
14Vermont
Louisville
—
3-seed defeats 14-seed low-major program.
7NC State
10Tennessee
NC State
—
7-seed narrowly beats 10-seed.
2Michigan
15Holy Cross
Michigan
—
Elite 2-seed dominates over 15-seed.
1Texas
8Oregon
Texas
—
1-seed rolling through regional bracket.
5Kentucky
4West Virginia
Kentucky
—
5-seed upsets 4-seed in close contest.
6Alabama
3Louisville
Alabama
—
6-seed advances over 3-seed in upset.
7NC State
2Michigan
Michigan
—
2-seed defeats 7-seed in 2-7 matchup.
1Texas
5Kentucky
Texas
—
Elite 1-seed cruises past 5-seed Kentucky.
6Alabama
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Strong 2-seed eliminates adjacently 6-seed Alabama.
1Texas
2Michigan
Texas
—
Slight edge over 2-seed Michigan in competitive region.
1UConn
1South Carolina
UConn
—
Strongest program pedigree beats tournament-tested 1-seed.
1UConn
1UCLA
UConn
—
Highest seed and strongest program wins national title.
1UCLA
1Texas
UCLA
—
Elite program edges top regional seed in competitive matchup.
UConn
First Four
Sacramento 2 10
10Virginia
10Arizona State
Virginia
—
Sacramento 2 16
16Southern U.
16Samford
Samford
—
Fort Worth 3 11
11Nebraska
11Richmond
Nebraska
—
Sacramento 4 16
16Missouri State
16SFA
Missouri State
—
Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

Seed-weighted probabilistic model with regional strength adjustment and controlled variance for upsets in 5/12 and 8/9 matchups.

Philosophy

Higher seeds advance in chalk pattern through first two rounds, with selective 6/11 and 7/10 upsets. Regional finals favor elite programs with tournament pedigree.

Upset strategy

Target 8/9 and 7/10 lines for minor upsets. One 12-seed advances in Fort Worth 3 region. All 1-2 seeds reach regional finals except for regional strength matchup.

Championship logic

UConn's dominant seed position, championship program pedigree, and strongest regional path combine for highest probability title.

Key factors

  • Seed differential and historical 1-16 upset rate
  • Conference strength adjustments for mid-major matchups
  • Tournament experience and coaching pedigree in later rounds
  • Geographic/regional travel advantages for top seeds
Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.

First FourSacramento 2 10

#10 Virginia vs #10 Arizona State

Picked: Virginia

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Traditional program edge in First Four matchup.
First FourSacramento 2 16

#16 Southern U. vs #16 Samford

Picked: Samford

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Recent tournament experience advantage.
First FourFort Worth 3 11

#11 Nebraska vs #11 Richmond

Picked: Nebraska

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Big Ten program strength wins First Four.
First FourSacramento 4 16

#16 Missouri State vs #16 SFA

Picked: Missouri State

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Missouri Valley quality over 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #16 UTSA

Picked: UConn

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Top seed dominance over 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Iowa State vs #9 Syracuse

Picked: Iowa State

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ISU program strength in 8-9 matchup.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Maryland vs #12 Murray State

Picked: Maryland

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Big Ten team defeats 12-seed mid-major.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 North Carolina vs #13 Western Illinois

Picked: North Carolina

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Historical program beats 13-seed.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Fairfield

Picked: Notre Dame

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Strong tournament program against 11-seed.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Ohio State vs #14 Howard

Picked: Ohio State

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3-seed program dominance over 14-seed.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado

Picked: Illinois

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7-seed edge over 10-seed in 7-10 matchup.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Vanderbilt vs #15 High Point

Picked: Vanderbilt

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2-seed defeats 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #16 Samford

Picked: South Carolina

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Top seed dominant in 1 vs 16 game.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Clemson vs #9 Southern California

Picked: Clemson

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8-9 upset pick based on conference strength.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Michigan State vs #12 Colorado State

Picked: Michigan State

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5-seed defeats 12-seed from mid-major.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Oklahoma vs #13 Idaho

Picked: Oklahoma

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4-seed defeats 13-seed mid-major.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Washington vs #11 South Dakota State

Picked: Washington

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6-seed tops 11-seed in close matchup.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 TCU vs #14 UC San Diego

Picked: TCU

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3-seed handles 14-seed tournament newcomer.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Georgia vs #10 Virginia

Picked: Virginia

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10-seed First Four winner upsets 7-seed.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Iowa vs #15 FDU

Picked: Iowa

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Top-tier 2-seed dominates 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #16 California Baptist

Picked: UCLA

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Elite 1-seed handles 16-seed comfortably.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oklahoma State vs #9 Princeton

Picked: Oklahoma State

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8-seed beats 9-seed in power conference matchup.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: Ole Miss

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12-seed upset over 5-seed in balanced mid-major matchup.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Minnesota vs #13 Green Bay

Picked: Minnesota

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4-seed defeats 13-seed from mid-major conference.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Baylor vs #11 Nebraska

Picked: Nebraska

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11-seed First Four upsets 6-seed.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Duke vs #14 Col. of Charleston

Picked: Duke

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3-seed defeats 14-seed mid-major program.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Texas Tech vs #10 Villanova

Picked: Villanova

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10-seed edges 7-seed in upset pattern.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 LSU vs #15 Jacksonville

Picked: LSU

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Elite 2-seed defeats 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #16 Missouri State

Picked: Texas

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National contender 1-seed dominates.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oregon vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Oregon

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9-seed edges 8-seed in toss-up matchup.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Kentucky vs #12 James Madison

Picked: Kentucky

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5-seed defeats 12-seed mid-major.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 West Virginia vs #13 Miami (Ohio)

Picked: West Virginia

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4-seed handles 13-seed from mid-major.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rhode Island

Picked: Alabama

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6-seed defeats 11-seed in SEC matchup.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Louisville vs #14 Vermont

Picked: Louisville

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3-seed defeats 14-seed low-major program.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 NC State vs #10 Tennessee

Picked: NC State

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7-seed narrowly beats 10-seed.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Michigan vs #15 Holy Cross

Picked: Michigan

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Elite 2-seed dominates over 15-seed.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #8 Iowa State

Picked: UConn

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1-seed rolling advances over 8/9 winner.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Maryland vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: North Carolina

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4-seed upsets 5-seed in classic bracket pattern.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: Notre Dame

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6-seed defeats 3-seed in upset.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Illinois vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

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2-seed advances over 7-seed.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #8 Clemson

Picked: South Carolina

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1-seed dominates 8/9 survivor.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Michigan State vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: Michigan State

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5-seed edges 4-seed in power conference battle.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Washington vs #3 TCU

Picked: TCU

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3-seed advances over 6-seed.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Virginia vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

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Elite 2-seed dominates regional path.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #8 Oklahoma State

Picked: UCLA

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1-seed handles 8/9 winner with ease.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Ole Miss vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: Minnesota

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4-seed advances over upset-minded 12-seed.
2nd RoundGame 3

#11 Nebraska vs #3 Duke

Picked: Nebraska

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11-seed Cinderella run continues past 3-seed.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Villanova vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

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2-seed advances over 10-seed.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #8 Oregon

Picked: Texas

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1-seed rolling through regional bracket.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Kentucky vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: Kentucky

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5-seed upsets 4-seed in close contest.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Alabama

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6-seed advances over 3-seed in upset.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 NC State vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

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2-seed defeats 7-seed in 2-7 matchup.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UConn vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: UConn

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Elite 1-seed defeats test from 4-seed UNC.
Sweet 16Game 2

#6 Notre Dame vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

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2-seed handles upset-minded 6-seed Notre Dame.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 South Carolina vs #5 Michigan State

Picked: South Carolina

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1-seem dominance over 5-seed MSU.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 TCU vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

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Elite 2-seed eliminates 3-seed TCU.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UCLA vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: UCLA

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Elite 1-seed defeats 4-seed Minnesota routinely.
Sweet 16Game 2

#11 Nebraska vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

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Strong 2-seed ends 11-seed Cinderella run.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 Texas vs #5 Kentucky

Picked: Texas

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Elite 1-seed cruises past 5-seed Kentucky.
Sweet 16Game 2

#6 Alabama vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

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Strong 2-seed eliminates adjacently 6-seed Alabama.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UConn vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: UConn

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Top seed powers past 2-seed Vanderbilt.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 South Carolina vs #2 Iowa

Picked: South Carolina

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1-seed slight edge over elite 2-seed Iowa.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UCLA vs #2 LSU

Picked: UCLA

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Regional strength gives 1-seed UCLA title in regional.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 Texas vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Texas

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Slight edge over 2-seed Michigan in competitive region.
Final FourFinal Four 1

#1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina

Picked: UConn

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Strongest program pedigree beats tournament-tested 1-seed.
Final FourFinal Four 2

#1 UCLA vs #1 Texas

Picked: UCLA

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Elite program edges top regional seed in competitive matchup.
ChampionshipChampionship

#1 UConn vs #1 UCLA

Picked: UConn

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Highest seed and strongest program wins national title.