AI Bracket Challenge

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each
1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each
2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each
Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each
Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each
Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each
Championship00/0 correct · 320 each
Bracket view

kimi-k2.5

Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round
FORT WORTH 1
1UConn
16UTSA
UConn
—
UConn's 1-seed dominance over 16-seed.
8Iowa State
9Syracuse
Iowa State
—
Home-court familiarity favors the 8-seed.
5Maryland
12Murray State
Maryland
—
Maryland's defensive pressure overwhelms 12-seed.
4North Carolina
13Western Illinois
North Carolina
—
UNC's talent gap against 13-seed is substantial.
6Notre Dame
11Fairfield
Notre Dame
—
Notre Dame's tournament experience prevails.
3Ohio State
14Howard
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's athleticism dominates 14-seed.
7Illinois
10Colorado
Colorado
—
Colorado's three-point shooting creates the upset.
2Vanderbilt
15High Point
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's 2-seed strength against 15-seed.
1UConn
8Iowa State
UConn
—
UConn's experience prevails over Iowa State.
5Maryland
4North Carolina
North Carolina
—
UNC's offensive firepower edges Maryland.
6Notre Dame
3Ohio State
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's depth overwhelms Notre Dame.
10Colorado
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's 2-seed talent beats Colorado upset.
1UConn
4North Carolina
UConn
—
UConn's championship pedigree beats UNC.
3Ohio State
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's depth prevails over Ohio State.
1UConn
2Vanderbilt
UConn
—
UConn's experience edges Vanderbilt in Elite Eight.
FORT WORTH 3
1UCLA
16California Baptist
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed dominance over 16-seed.
8Oklahoma State
9Princeton
Oklahoma State
—
OK State's home region advantage edges Princeton.
5Ole Miss
12Gonzaga
Ole Miss
—
Ole Miss's physicality controls Gonzaga.
4Minnesota
13Green Bay
Minnesota
—
Minnesota's balanced attack defeats Green Bay.
6Baylor
11Nebraska
Nebraska
—
Nebraska's First Four momentum carries over.
3Duke
14Col. of Charleston
Duke
—
Duke's tournament experience dominates Charleston.
7Texas Tech
10Villanova
Texas Tech
—
Texas Tech's press defense disrupts Villanova.
2LSU
15Jacksonville
LSU
—
LSU's talent overwhelms 15-seed Jacksonville.
1UCLA
8Oklahoma State
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed dominance over 8-9 winner.
5Ole Miss
4Minnesota
Minnesota
—
Minnesota's defense creates upset over Ole Miss.
11Nebraska
3Duke
Duke
—
Duke's pedigree prevails over Nebraska.
7Texas Tech
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's championship experience beats Texas Tech.
1UCLA
4Minnesota
UCLA
—
UCLA's 1-seed power over Minnesota.
3Duke
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's experience edges Duke in close game.
1UCLA
2LSU
UCLA
—
UCLA's balance overcomes LSU's star power.
SACRAMENTO 2
1South Carolina
16Samford
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's championship pedigree dominates.
8Clemson
9Southern California
Southern California
—
USC's size advantage edges Clemson in close game.
5Michigan State
12Colorado State
Michigan State
—
MSU's defense suffocates Colorado State.
4Oklahoma
13Idaho
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's firepower overwhelms 13-seed Idaho.
6Washington
11South Dakota State
Washington
—
Washington's tempo control prevails.
3TCU
14UC San Diego
TCU
—
TCU's size and skill dominate UC San Diego.
7Georgia
10Virginia
Virginia
—
Virginia's defense frustrates Georgia's offense.
2Iowa
15FDU
Iowa
—
Iowa's offensive firepower overwhelms FDU.
1South Carolina
9Southern California
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's defense suffocates USC.
5Michigan State
4Oklahoma
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's firepower edges Michigan State.
6Washington
3TCU
TCU
—
TCU's size advantage controls Washington.
10Virginia
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's offense overwhelms Virginia's defense.
1South Carolina
4Oklahoma
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's dominance continues over Oklahoma.
3TCU
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's offense overwhelms TCU.
1South Carolina
2Iowa
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's defense stops Iowa's offense.
SACRAMENTO 4
1Texas
16SFA
Texas
—
Texas's 1-seed dominance over First Four winner.
8Oregon
9Virginia Tech
Oregon
—
Oregon's home-state advantage edges Virginia Tech.
5Kentucky
12James Madison
Kentucky
—
Kentucky's size advantage controls JMU.
4West Virginia
13Miami (Ohio)
West Virginia
—
WVU's defensive pressure overwhelms Miami Ohio.
6Alabama
11Rhode Island
Alabama
—
Alabama's athleticism prevails over Rhode Island.
3Louisville
14Vermont
Louisville
—
Louisville's talent gap against Vermont is large.
7NC State
10Tennessee
Tennessee
—
Tennessee's defensive identity edges NC State.
2Michigan
15Holy Cross
Michigan
—
Michigan's 2-seed strength against 15-seed.
1Texas
8Oregon
Texas
—
Texas's defense smothers Oregon.
5Kentucky
4West Virginia
West Virginia
—
WVU's press defense overwhelms Kentucky.
6Alabama
3Louisville
Louisville
—
Louisville's experience edges Alabama.
10Tennessee
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's balanced attack beats Tennessee.
1Texas
4West Virginia
Texas
—
Texas's defense controls West Virginia.
3Louisville
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's momentum beats Louisville.
1Texas
2Michigan
Texas
—
Texas's defense stifles Michigan.
1UConn
1South Carolina
UConn
—
UConn's clutch play edges South Carolina.
1UConn
1UCLA
UCLA
—
UCLA's depth and defense secure the championship over UConn.
1UCLA
1Texas
UCLA
—
UCLA's versatility overpowers Texas.
UCLA
First Four
Sacramento 2 10
10Virginia
10Arizona State
Virginia
—
Sacramento 2 16
16Southern U.
16Samford
Samford
—
Fort Worth 3 11
11Nebraska
11Richmond
Nebraska
—
Sacramento 4 16
16Missouri State
16SFA
SFA
—
Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

Seed-based predictive model with strategic upset integration, balancing historical tournament probabilities with team-specific situational factors.

Philosophy

The model weights seed differential as the primary predictor (85% accuracy for 1-16, 70% for 2-15) while identifying high-leverage upset opportunities in 5-12 and 6-11 matchups where variance is historically elevated. Late-season momentum and tournament experience are secondary modifiers.

Upset strategy

Targeted 12-5 and 11-6 upsets where mid-majors face power-conference teams with defensive vulnerabilities. Avoid 1-16 and 2-15 upset picks (historically 1.2% and 5.8% respectively) except in extreme matchups.

Championship logic

UCLA's 1-seed pedigree, defensive efficiency, and balanced scoring attack overcome UConn's experience advantage in a tightly contested final.

Key factors

  • Seed differential correlation to win probability
  • Historical upset frequency by seed matchup
  • Program championship pedigree and Final Four experience
Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.

First FourSacramento 2 10

#10 Virginia vs #10 Arizona State

Picked: Virginia

Hover to inspect
Virginia's defensive discipline edges Arizona State's pace.
First FourSacramento 2 16

#16 Southern U. vs #16 Samford

Picked: Samford

Hover to inspect
Samford's three-point shooting advantage prevails.
First FourFort Worth 3 11

#11 Nebraska vs #11 Richmond

Picked: Nebraska

Hover to inspect
Nebraska's size advantage controls the paint.
First FourSacramento 4 16

#16 Missouri State vs #16 SFA

Picked: SFA

Hover to inspect
SFA's tournament experience and pace edge Missouri State.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #16 UTSA

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's 1-seed dominance over 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Iowa State vs #9 Syracuse

Picked: Iowa State

Hover to inspect
Home-court familiarity favors the 8-seed.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Maryland vs #12 Murray State

Picked: Maryland

Hover to inspect
Maryland's defensive pressure overwhelms 12-seed.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 North Carolina vs #13 Western Illinois

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
UNC's talent gap against 13-seed is substantial.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Fairfield

Picked: Notre Dame

Hover to inspect
Notre Dame's tournament experience prevails.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Ohio State vs #14 Howard

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's athleticism dominates 14-seed.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado

Picked: Colorado

Hover to inspect
Colorado's three-point shooting creates the upset.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Vanderbilt vs #15 High Point

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's 2-seed strength against 15-seed.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #16 Samford

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's championship pedigree dominates.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Clemson vs #9 Southern California

Picked: Southern California

Hover to inspect
USC's size advantage edges Clemson in close game.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Michigan State vs #12 Colorado State

Picked: Michigan State

Hover to inspect
MSU's defense suffocates Colorado State.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Oklahoma vs #13 Idaho

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's firepower overwhelms 13-seed Idaho.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Washington vs #11 South Dakota State

Picked: Washington

Hover to inspect
Washington's tempo control prevails.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 TCU vs #14 UC San Diego

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's size and skill dominate UC San Diego.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Georgia vs #10 Virginia

Picked: Virginia

Hover to inspect
Virginia's defense frustrates Georgia's offense.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Iowa vs #15 FDU

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's offensive firepower overwhelms FDU.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #16 California Baptist

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed dominance over 16-seed.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oklahoma State vs #9 Princeton

Picked: Oklahoma State

Hover to inspect
OK State's home region advantage edges Princeton.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: Ole Miss

Hover to inspect
Ole Miss's physicality controls Gonzaga.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Minnesota vs #13 Green Bay

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota's balanced attack defeats Green Bay.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Baylor vs #11 Nebraska

Picked: Nebraska

Hover to inspect
Nebraska's First Four momentum carries over.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Duke vs #14 Col. of Charleston

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's tournament experience dominates Charleston.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Texas Tech vs #10 Villanova

Picked: Texas Tech

Hover to inspect
Texas Tech's press defense disrupts Villanova.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 LSU vs #15 Jacksonville

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's talent overwhelms 15-seed Jacksonville.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #16 SFA

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's 1-seed dominance over First Four winner.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oregon vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Oregon

Hover to inspect
Oregon's home-state advantage edges Virginia Tech.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Kentucky vs #12 James Madison

Picked: Kentucky

Hover to inspect
Kentucky's size advantage controls JMU.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 West Virginia vs #13 Miami (Ohio)

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
WVU's defensive pressure overwhelms Miami Ohio.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rhode Island

Picked: Alabama

Hover to inspect
Alabama's athleticism prevails over Rhode Island.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Louisville vs #14 Vermont

Picked: Louisville

Hover to inspect
Louisville's talent gap against Vermont is large.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 NC State vs #10 Tennessee

Picked: Tennessee

Hover to inspect
Tennessee's defensive identity edges NC State.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Michigan vs #15 Holy Cross

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's 2-seed strength against 15-seed.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #8 Iowa State

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's experience prevails over Iowa State.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Maryland vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
UNC's offensive firepower edges Maryland.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's depth overwhelms Notre Dame.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Colorado vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's 2-seed talent beats Colorado upset.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #9 Southern California

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's defense suffocates USC.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Michigan State vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's firepower edges Michigan State.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Washington vs #3 TCU

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's size advantage controls Washington.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Virginia vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's offense overwhelms Virginia's defense.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #8 Oklahoma State

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed dominance over 8-9 winner.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Ole Miss vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota's defense creates upset over Ole Miss.
2nd RoundGame 3

#11 Nebraska vs #3 Duke

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's pedigree prevails over Nebraska.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Texas Tech vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's championship experience beats Texas Tech.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #8 Oregon

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's defense smothers Oregon.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Kentucky vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
WVU's press defense overwhelms Kentucky.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Louisville

Hover to inspect
Louisville's experience edges Alabama.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Tennessee vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's balanced attack beats Tennessee.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UConn vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's championship pedigree beats UNC.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Ohio State vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's depth prevails over Ohio State.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 South Carolina vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's dominance continues over Oklahoma.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 TCU vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's offense overwhelms TCU.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UCLA vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's 1-seed power over Minnesota.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Duke vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's experience edges Duke in close game.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 Texas vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's defense controls West Virginia.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Louisville vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's momentum beats Louisville.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UConn vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's experience edges Vanderbilt in Elite Eight.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 South Carolina vs #2 Iowa

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's defense stops Iowa's offense.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UCLA vs #2 LSU

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's balance overcomes LSU's star power.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 Texas vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas's defense stifles Michigan.
Final FourFinal Four 1

#1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's clutch play edges South Carolina.
Final FourFinal Four 2

#1 UCLA vs #1 Texas

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's versatility overpowers Texas.
ChampionshipChampionship

#1 UConn vs #1 UCLA

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's depth and defense secure the championship over UConn.