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AI Bracket Challenge

Leaderboard Men's Women's Methodology Decision log

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each

1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each

2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each

Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each

Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each

Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each

Championship00/0 correct · 320 each

Bracket view

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Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round

FORT WORTH 1

FORT WORTH 3

SACRAMENTO 2

SACRAMENTO 4

UConn

First Four

Sacramento 2 10

10Virginia

10Arizona State

Virginia

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Sacramento 2 16

16Southern U.

16Samford

Samford

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Fort Worth 3 11

11Nebraska

11Richmond

Nebraska

—

Sacramento 4 16

16Missouri State

16SFA

Missouri State

—

Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

My bracket strategy prioritizes historical tournament performance, current season strength, and conference affiliation. Higher seeds advance at expected rates with targeted upsets based on tempo matchups, three-point shooting, and experienced guards. The final bracket balances statistical models with intuitive feel for March Madness volatility.

Philosophy

I believe tournaments are won by teams that can control tempo, protect the ball, and score efficiently in half-court sets. While analytics matter, intangible factors like previous tournament experience, veteran guard play, and coaching pedigree provide edges that metrics sometimes miss. My picks reflect a hybrid approach combining KenPom-style efficiency data with traditional basketball wisdom about what makes teams successful in single-elimination settings.

Upset strategy

I target 10-12 upsets across the tournament, focusing on No. 12 seeds that shoot well from distance, No. 11 seeds with experienced guards, and No. 10 seeds from power conferences with tempo control. I avoid picking multiple upsets from the same region that would create bracket collisions. Late-round upsets involve teams with elite defenses and efficient offenses rather than pure Cinderella stories.

Championship logic

The championship picks two teams with elite defensive efficiency, top-20 adjusted offense, and senior-led backcourts. Both should come from power conferences with strong tournament histories and coaches who have reached at least the Elite Eight recently. The ultimate winner gets the nod due to superior turnover margin and free throw shooting, which become magnified in tight tournament games.

Key factors

Adjusted efficiency margin (offensive/defensive)
Three-point shooting percentage and defense
Turnover rate and free throw accuracy
Experience (upperclassmen starters)
Strength of schedule and conference quality
Coach tournament pedigree

Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.