AI Bracket Challenge

Scoring

Round-by-round ESPN scoring

Each settled game shows its own point result inside the bracket. These totals roll up the same 10-20-40-80-160-320 scoring used by ESPN.

First Four00/0 correct · 0 each
1st Round00/0 correct · 10 each
2nd Round00/0 correct · 20 each
Sweet 1600/0 correct · 40 each
Elite 800/0 correct · 80 each
Final Four00/0 correct · 160 each
Championship00/0 correct · 320 each
Bracket view

big-pickle

Generated Mar 19, 4:07 AM · ready

1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipFinal FourElite 8Sweet 162nd Round1st Round
FORT WORTH 1
1UConn
16UTSA
UConn
—
UConn's dynasty-era pedigree makes 16-seed UTSA irrelevant.
8Iowa State
9Syracuse
Iowa State
—
Iowa State's tournament-tested backcourt handles Syracuse's zone.
5Maryland
12Murray State
Maryland
—
Maryland's Big Ten toughness handles Murray State's speed.
4North Carolina
13Western Illinois
North Carolina
—
UNC's athleticism overwhelms Western Illinois at every position.
6Notre Dame
11Fairfield
Notre Dame
—
Notre Dame's power conference experience beats Fairfield's grit.
3Ohio State
14Howard
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's top-10 offense is too much for Howard.
7Illinois
10Colorado
Colorado
—
Colorado's shooting touch gives them the edge over Illinois.
2Vanderbilt
15High Point
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's SEC competition prepares them for High Point.
1UConn
8Iowa State
UConn
—
UConn's round 2 experience dominates Iowa State's upset attempt.
5Maryland
4North Carolina
North Carolina
—
North Carolina's athleticism edges Maryland's physicality.
6Notre Dame
3Ohio State
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's elite offense handles Notre Dame's resilience.
10Colorado
2Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
—
Vanderbilt's experience barely overcomes Colorado's upset surge.
1UConn
4North Carolina
UConn
—
UConn's Elite Eight experience dominates UNC's youth.
3Ohio State
2Vanderbilt
Ohio State
—
Ohio State's top-10 ranking handles Vanderbilt in grind-out game.
1UConn
3Ohio State
UConn
—
UConn's dynasty DNA overcomes Ohio State's elite offense.
FORT WORTH 3
1UCLA
16California Baptist
UCLA
—
UCLA's Pac-12 championship momentum crushes CBU.
8Oklahoma State
9Princeton
Oklahoma State
—
OKST's defensive system frustrates Princeton's precision.
5Ole Miss
12Gonzaga
Gonzaga
—
Gonzaga's March experience outlasts Ole Miss' SEC grit.
4Minnesota
13Green Bay
Minnesota
—
Minnesota's Big Ten size handles Green Bay's shooting.
6Baylor
11Nebraska
Nebraska
—
Nebraska's physicality creates problems for Baylor's style.
3Duke
14Col. of Charleston
Duke
—
Duke's talent differential over Col. of Charleston is massive.
7Texas Tech
10Villanova
Texas Tech
—
Texas Tech's defensive intensity frustrates Villanova.
2LSU
15Jacksonville
LSU
—
LSU's SEC championship pedigree handles Jacksonville easily.
1UCLA
8Oklahoma State
UCLA
—
UCLA's depth and tournament experience handle OKST's defense.
12Gonzaga
4Minnesota
Gonzaga
—
Gonzaga's March experience edges Minnesota's Big Ten grit.
11Nebraska
3Duke
Duke
—
Duke's top-10 talent overwhelms Nebraska's physicality.
7Texas Tech
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's championship DNA handles Texas Tech's defensive intensity.
1UCLA
12Gonzaga
UCLA
—
UCLA's balanced attack edges Gonzaga's tournament experience.
3Duke
2LSU
LSU
—
LSU's championship pedigree dominates Duke's youthful Final Four run.
1UCLA
2LSU
UCLA
—
UCLA's Pac-12 championship depth overcomes LSU's SEC experience.
SACRAMENTO 2
1South Carolina
16Southern U.
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's undefeated potential makes Southern U a formality.
8Clemson
9Southern California
Southern California
—
USC's defensive pressure creates Clemson turnovers.
5Michigan State
12Colorado State
Michigan State
—
Michigan State's physical defense slows Colorado State's offense.
4Oklahoma
13Idaho
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's Big 12 experience handles Idaho comfortably.
6Washington
11South Dakota State
South Dakota State
—
SDSU's Summit League tournament poise upsets Washington's length.
3TCU
14UC San Diego
TCU
—
TCU's balanced attack overwhelms UC San Diego.
7Georgia
10Virginia
Georgia
—
Georgia's SEC physicality edges Virginia's tournament experience.
2Iowa
15FDU
Iowa
—
Iowa's offensive firepower is far superior to FDU's.
1South Carolina
9Southern California
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's defense dominates USC's offensive attack.
5Michigan State
4Oklahoma
Oklahoma
—
Oklahoma's tournament experience edges Michigan State's defense.
11South Dakota State
3TCU
TCU
—
TCU's balanced attack handles SDSU's upset momentum.
7Georgia
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's offensive power overcomes Georgia's defensive grit.
1South Carolina
4Oklahoma
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's suffocating defense stops Oklahoma's offense.
3TCU
2Iowa
Iowa
—
Iowa's top-5 offense edges TCU in high-scoring affair.
1South Carolina
2Iowa
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's championship DNA dominates Iowa's Final Four inexperience.
SACRAMENTO 4
1Texas
16Missouri State
Texas
—
Texas' top-5 roster overwhelms Missouri State's ambition.
8Oregon
9Virginia Tech
Oregon
—
Oregon's Pac-12 tournament run gives them edge over Virginia Tech.
5Kentucky
12James Madison
James Madison
—
JMU's Sun Belt dominance challenges Kentucky's SEC talent.
4West Virginia
13Miami (Ohio)
West Virginia
—
West Virginia's Big 12 physicality handles Miami (Ohio).
6Alabama
11Rhode Island
Alabama
—
Alabama's SEC tournament confidence handles Rhode Island.
3Louisville
14Vermont
Louisville
—
Louisville's ACC tournament pedigree handles Vermont.
7NC State
10Tennessee
NC State
—
NC State's tournament experience edges Tennessee's youth.
2Michigan
15Holy Cross
Michigan
—
Michigan's Big Ten championship form crushes Holy Cross.
1Texas
8Oregon
Texas
—
Texas' top-5 roster dominates Oregon's upset attempt.
12James Madison
4West Virginia
West Virginia
—
West Virginia's physicality edges JMU's upset momentum.
6Alabama
3Louisville
Alabama
—
Alabama's SEC tournament run continues past Louisville.
7NC State
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's Big Ten championship form handles NC State.
1Texas
4West Virginia
Texas
—
Texas' dominant talent overwhelms West Virginia's physicality.
6Alabama
2Michigan
Michigan
—
Michigan's elite offense edges Alabama's tournament momentum.
1Texas
2Michigan
Texas
—
Texas' top seed and Final Four experience overcome Michigan.
1UConn
1South Carolina
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's championship DNA dominates UConn's Elite Eight run.
1South Carolina
1Texas
South Carolina
—
South Carolina's defensive versatility and tournament experience defeat Texas.
1UCLA
1Texas
Texas
—
Texas' offensive firepower edges UCLA's defensive resilience.
South Carolina
First Four
Sacramento 2 10
10Virginia
10Arizona State
Virginia
—
Sacramento 2 16
16Southern U.
16Samford
Southern U.
—
Fort Worth 3 11
11Nebraska
11Richmond
Nebraska
—
Sacramento 4 16
16Missouri State
16SFA
Missouri State
—
Methodology

How this model filled the bracket

A probabilistic bracket model prioritizing top seeds while selectively hunting value in upsets, with regional strength assessment guiding Final Four projections.

Philosophy

Balance chalk favorites with calculated variance. Protect elite seeds (1-2) through Elite Eight, then allow upset potential in Sweet 16/Elite Eight where matchup variance increases.

Upset strategy

Target 7/10 and 8/9 First Four winners in R32 vs protected seeds. Avoid 1-16 and 2-15 upsets. Colorado (10) over Illinois (7) in Fort Worth 1 R32 represents prime upset territory.

Championship logic

South Carolina wins because their defensive versatility and experience at this stage overwhelms Texas' offensive firepower. Game within a game: SC's guard play neutralizes Texas' size advantage.

Key factors

  • Top seeds in dominant regions (SC as clear 1-seed, UCLA's balanced FW3 draw, Texas' deep roster in Sac4)
  • Bracket position and path difficulty - avoiding teams facing likely tough Sweet 16 matchups
  • Historical upset patterns - 5-12 seeds in R32, 4-5 in Sweet 16 offer highest EV
  • Defensive efficiency as tiebreaker between comparable seeds
Decision log

Hover each matchup to read the reasoning

Every entry below is compact by default. Mouse over or focus a note to open the full explanation.

First FourSacramento 2 10

#10 Virginia vs #10 Arizona State

Picked: Virginia

Hover to inspect
Virginia's tournament experience edges Arizona State's at-large resume.
First FourSacramento 2 16

#16 Southern U. vs #16 Samford

Picked: Southern U.

Hover to inspect
Southern U's SWAC dominance gives them the edge in this battle of 16-seeds.
First FourFort Worth 3 11

#11 Nebraska vs #11 Richmond

Picked: Nebraska

Hover to inspect
Nebraska's size and physicality overcome Richmond's discipline.
First FourSacramento 4 16

#16 Missouri State vs #16 SFA

Picked: Missouri State

Hover to inspect
Missouri State's MVC tournament run indicates they can handle the moment.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #16 UTSA

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's dynasty-era pedigree makes 16-seed UTSA irrelevant.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Iowa State vs #9 Syracuse

Picked: Iowa State

Hover to inspect
Iowa State's tournament-tested backcourt handles Syracuse's zone.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Maryland vs #12 Murray State

Picked: Maryland

Hover to inspect
Maryland's Big Ten toughness handles Murray State's speed.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 North Carolina vs #13 Western Illinois

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
UNC's athleticism overwhelms Western Illinois at every position.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Fairfield

Picked: Notre Dame

Hover to inspect
Notre Dame's power conference experience beats Fairfield's grit.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Ohio State vs #14 Howard

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's top-10 offense is too much for Howard.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado

Picked: Colorado

Hover to inspect
Colorado's shooting touch gives them the edge over Illinois.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Vanderbilt vs #15 High Point

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's SEC competition prepares them for High Point.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #16 Southern U.

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's undefeated potential makes Southern U a formality.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Clemson vs #9 Southern California

Picked: Southern California

Hover to inspect
USC's defensive pressure creates Clemson turnovers.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Michigan State vs #12 Colorado State

Picked: Michigan State

Hover to inspect
Michigan State's physical defense slows Colorado State's offense.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Oklahoma vs #13 Idaho

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's Big 12 experience handles Idaho comfortably.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Washington vs #11 South Dakota State

Picked: South Dakota State

Hover to inspect
SDSU's Summit League tournament poise upsets Washington's length.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 TCU vs #14 UC San Diego

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's balanced attack overwhelms UC San Diego.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Georgia vs #10 Virginia

Picked: Georgia

Hover to inspect
Georgia's SEC physicality edges Virginia's tournament experience.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Iowa vs #15 FDU

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's offensive firepower is far superior to FDU's.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #16 California Baptist

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's Pac-12 championship momentum crushes CBU.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oklahoma State vs #9 Princeton

Picked: Oklahoma State

Hover to inspect
OKST's defensive system frustrates Princeton's precision.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: Gonzaga

Hover to inspect
Gonzaga's March experience outlasts Ole Miss' SEC grit.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 Minnesota vs #13 Green Bay

Picked: Minnesota

Hover to inspect
Minnesota's Big Ten size handles Green Bay's shooting.
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Baylor vs #11 Nebraska

Picked: Nebraska

Hover to inspect
Nebraska's physicality creates problems for Baylor's style.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Duke vs #14 Col. of Charleston

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's talent differential over Col. of Charleston is massive.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 Texas Tech vs #10 Villanova

Picked: Texas Tech

Hover to inspect
Texas Tech's defensive intensity frustrates Villanova.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 LSU vs #15 Jacksonville

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's SEC championship pedigree handles Jacksonville easily.
1st RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #16 Missouri State

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas' top-5 roster overwhelms Missouri State's ambition.
1st RoundGame 2

#8 Oregon vs #9 Virginia Tech

Picked: Oregon

Hover to inspect
Oregon's Pac-12 tournament run gives them edge over Virginia Tech.
1st RoundGame 3

#5 Kentucky vs #12 James Madison

Picked: James Madison

Hover to inspect
JMU's Sun Belt dominance challenges Kentucky's SEC talent.
1st RoundGame 4

#4 West Virginia vs #13 Miami (Ohio)

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
West Virginia's Big 12 physicality handles Miami (Ohio).
1st RoundGame 5

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rhode Island

Picked: Alabama

Hover to inspect
Alabama's SEC tournament confidence handles Rhode Island.
1st RoundGame 6

#3 Louisville vs #14 Vermont

Picked: Louisville

Hover to inspect
Louisville's ACC tournament pedigree handles Vermont.
1st RoundGame 7

#7 NC State vs #10 Tennessee

Picked: NC State

Hover to inspect
NC State's tournament experience edges Tennessee's youth.
1st RoundGame 8

#2 Michigan vs #15 Holy Cross

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's Big Ten championship form crushes Holy Cross.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UConn vs #8 Iowa State

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's round 2 experience dominates Iowa State's upset attempt.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Maryland vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: North Carolina

Hover to inspect
North Carolina's athleticism edges Maryland's physicality.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's elite offense handles Notre Dame's resilience.
2nd RoundGame 4

#10 Colorado vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Vanderbilt

Hover to inspect
Vanderbilt's experience barely overcomes Colorado's upset surge.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 South Carolina vs #9 Southern California

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's defense dominates USC's offensive attack.
2nd RoundGame 2

#5 Michigan State vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: Oklahoma

Hover to inspect
Oklahoma's tournament experience edges Michigan State's defense.
2nd RoundGame 3

#11 South Dakota State vs #3 TCU

Picked: TCU

Hover to inspect
TCU's balanced attack handles SDSU's upset momentum.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Georgia vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's offensive power overcomes Georgia's defensive grit.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 UCLA vs #8 Oklahoma State

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's depth and tournament experience handle OKST's defense.
2nd RoundGame 2

#12 Gonzaga vs #4 Minnesota

Picked: Gonzaga

Hover to inspect
Gonzaga's March experience edges Minnesota's Big Ten grit.
2nd RoundGame 3

#11 Nebraska vs #3 Duke

Picked: Duke

Hover to inspect
Duke's top-10 talent overwhelms Nebraska's physicality.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 Texas Tech vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's championship DNA handles Texas Tech's defensive intensity.
2nd RoundGame 1

#1 Texas vs #8 Oregon

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas' top-5 roster dominates Oregon's upset attempt.
2nd RoundGame 2

#12 James Madison vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: West Virginia

Hover to inspect
West Virginia's physicality edges JMU's upset momentum.
2nd RoundGame 3

#6 Alabama vs #3 Louisville

Picked: Alabama

Hover to inspect
Alabama's SEC tournament run continues past Louisville.
2nd RoundGame 4

#7 NC State vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's Big Ten championship form handles NC State.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UConn vs #4 North Carolina

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's Elite Eight experience dominates UNC's youth.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Ohio State vs #2 Vanderbilt

Picked: Ohio State

Hover to inspect
Ohio State's top-10 ranking handles Vanderbilt in grind-out game.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 South Carolina vs #4 Oklahoma

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's suffocating defense stops Oklahoma's offense.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 TCU vs #2 Iowa

Picked: Iowa

Hover to inspect
Iowa's top-5 offense edges TCU in high-scoring affair.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 UCLA vs #12 Gonzaga

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's balanced attack edges Gonzaga's tournament experience.
Sweet 16Game 2

#3 Duke vs #2 LSU

Picked: LSU

Hover to inspect
LSU's championship pedigree dominates Duke's youthful Final Four run.
Sweet 16Game 1

#1 Texas vs #4 West Virginia

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas' dominant talent overwhelms West Virginia's physicality.
Sweet 16Game 2

#6 Alabama vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Michigan

Hover to inspect
Michigan's elite offense edges Alabama's tournament momentum.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UConn vs #3 Ohio State

Picked: UConn

Hover to inspect
UConn's dynasty DNA overcomes Ohio State's elite offense.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 South Carolina vs #2 Iowa

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's championship DNA dominates Iowa's Final Four inexperience.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 UCLA vs #2 LSU

Picked: UCLA

Hover to inspect
UCLA's Pac-12 championship depth overcomes LSU's SEC experience.
Elite 8Regional Final

#1 Texas vs #2 Michigan

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas' top seed and Final Four experience overcome Michigan.
Final FourFinal Four 1

#1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's championship DNA dominates UConn's Elite Eight run.
Final FourFinal Four 2

#1 UCLA vs #1 Texas

Picked: Texas

Hover to inspect
Texas' offensive firepower edges UCLA's defensive resilience.
ChampionshipChampionship

#1 South Carolina vs #1 Texas

Picked: South Carolina

Hover to inspect
South Carolina's defensive versatility and tournament experience defeat Texas.